There is considerable disagreement about the epistemic value of novel predictive success, i.e. when a scientist predicts an unexpected phenomenon, experiments are conducted, and the prediction proves to be accurate. We survey the field on this question, noting both fully articulated views such as weak and strong predictivism, and more nascent views, such as pluralist reasons for the instrumental value of prediction. By examining the various reasons offered for the value of prediction across a range of inferential contexts , we (...) can see that neither weak nor strong predictivism captures all of the reasons for valuing prediction available. A third path is presented, Pluralist Instrumental Predictivism; PIP for short. (shrink)

This paper examines precursors and consequents of perceived relevance of a proposition A for a proposition C. In Experiment 1, we test Spohn's assumption that ∆P = P − P is a good predictor of ratings of perceived relevance and reason relations, and we examine whether it is a better predictor than the difference measure − P). In Experiment 2, we examine the effects of relevance on probabilistic coherence in Cruz, Baratgin, Oaksford, and Over's uncertain “and-to-if” inferences. The results suggest (...) that ∆P predicts perceived relevance and reason relations better than the difference measure and that participants are either less probabilistically coherent in “and-to-if” inferences than initially assumed or that they do not follow P = P. Results are discussed in light of recent results suggesting that the Equation may not hold under conditions of irrelevance or negative relevance. (shrink)

Recently several papers have reported relevance effects on the cognitive assessments of indicative conditionals, which pose an explanatory challenge to the Suppositional Theory of conditionals advanced by David Over, which is influential in the psychology of reasoning. Some of these results concern the “Equation” (P(if A, then C) = P(C|A)), others the de Finetti truth table, and yet others the uncertain and-to-inference task. The purpose of this chapter is to take a Birdseye view on the debate and investigate some of (...) the open theoretical issues posed by the empirical results. Central among these is whether to count these effects as belonging to pragmatics or semantics. (shrink)

This dissertation is devoted to empirically contrasting the Suppositional Theory of conditionals, which holds that indicative conditionals serve the purpose of engaging in hypothetical thought, and Inferentialism, which holds that indicative conditionals express reason relations. Throughout a series of experiments, probabilistic and truth-conditional variants of Inferentialism are investigated using new stimulus materials, which manipulate previously overlooked relevance conditions. These studies are some of the first published studies to directly investigate the central claims of Inferentialism empirically. In contrast, the Suppositional Theory (...) of conditionals has an impressive track record through more than a decade of intensive testing. The evidence for the Suppositional Theory encompasses three sources. Firstly, direct investigations of the probability of indicative conditionals, which substantiate “the Equation” (P(if A, then C) = P(C|A)). Secondly, the pattern of results known as “the defective truth table” effect, which corroborates the de Finetti truth table. And thirdly, indirect evidence from the uncertain and-to-if inference task. Through four studies each of these sources of evidence are scrutinized anew under the application of novel stimulus materials that factorially combine all permutations of prior and relevance levels of two conjoined sentences. The results indicate that the Equation only holds under positive relevance (P(C|A) – P(C|¬A) > 0) for indicative conditionals. In the case of irrelevance (P(C|A) – P(C|¬A) = 0), or negative relevance (P(C|A) – P(C|¬A) < 0), the strong relationship between P(if A, then C) and P(C|A) is disrupted. This finding suggests that participants tend to view natural language conditionals as defective under irrelevance and negative relevance (Chapter 2). Furthermore, most of the participants turn out only to be probabilistically coherent above chance levels for the uncertain and-to-if inference in the positive relevance condition, when applying the Equation (Chapter 3). Finally, the results on the truth table task indicate that the de Finetti truth table is at most descriptive for about a third of the participants (Chapter 4). Conversely, strong evidence for a probabilistic implementation of Inferentialism could be obtained from assessments of P(if A, then C) across relevance levels (Chapter 2) and the participants’ performance on the uncertain-and-to-if inference task (Chapter 3). Yet the results from the truth table task suggest that these findings could not be extended to truth-conditional Inferentialism (Chapter 4). On the contrary, strong dissociations could be found between the presence of an effect of the reason relation reading on the probability and acceptability evaluations of indicative conditionals (and connate sentences), and the lack of an effect of the reason relation reading on the truth evaluation of the same sentences. A bird’s eye view on these surprising results is taken in the final chapter and it is discussed which perspectives these results open up for future research. (shrink)

What is to be learned from the chaotic downfall of the Weimar Republic and the erosion of European liberal statehood in the interwar period vis-a-vis the ongoing European crisis? This book analyses and explains the recurrent emergence of crises in European societies. It asks how previous crises can inform our understanding of the present crisis. The particular perspective advanced is that these crises not only are economic and social crises, but must also be understood as crises of public power, order (...) and authority. In other words, it argues that substantial challenges to the functional and normative setup of democracy and the rule of law were central to the emergence and the unfolding of these crises. The book draws on and adds to the rich ’crises literature’ developed within the critical theory tradition to outline a conceptual framework for understanding what societal crises are. The central idea is that societal crises represent a discrepancy between the unfolding of social processes and the institutional frameworks that have been established to normatively stabilize such processes. The crises at issue emerged in periods characterized by strong social, economic and technological transformations as well as situations of political upheaval. As such, the crises represented moments where the existing functional and normative grid of society, as embodied in notions of public order and authority, were severely challenged and in many instances undermined. Seen in this perspective, the book reconstructs how crises unfolded, how they were experienced, and what kind of responses the specific crises in question provoked. -/- Table of Contents -/- Introduction: European Crises of Public Power: From Weimar until Today, Poul F. Kjaer & Niklas Olsen / Part I: Semantics, Notions and Narratives of Societal Crisis / 1. What Time Frame Makes Sense for Thinking About Crises?, David Runciman / 2. The Stakes of Crises, Janet Roitman / Part II: Weimar and the Interwar Period: Ideologies of Anti-Modernism and Liberalism / 3. The Crisis of Modernity – Modernity as Crisis: Towards a Typology of Crisis Discourses in Interwar East Central Europe and Beyond, Balázs Trencsényi / 4. European Legitimacy Crisis – Weimar and Today: Rational and Theocratic Authority in the Schmitt-Strauss Exchange, John P. McCormick / 5. Crisis and the Consumer: Reconstructions of Liberalism in Twentieth Century Political Thought , Niklas Olsen / Part III: The Causes of Crises: From Corporatism to Governance / 6. The Constitutionalization of Labour Law and the Crisis of National Democracy , Chris Thornhill / 7. The Crisis in Labour Law: From Weimar to Austerity Ruth Dukes / 8. From the Crisis of Corporatism to the Crisis of Governance, Poul F. Kjaer / Part IV: The Euro and the Crisis of Law and Democracy / 9. What is left of the European Economic Constitution II? From Pyrrhic Victory to Cannae Defeat Christian Joerges / 10. Reflections on Europe’s “Rule of Law Crisis”, Jan-Werner Müller. 11. Democracy under Siege: The Decay of Constitutionalisation and the Crisis of Public Law and Public Opinion, Hauke Brunkhorst/ Part V: The Consequences of Crises and the Future of Europe / 12. Crises and Extra-Legality: From Above and From Below, William E. Scheuermann / 13. “We could all go Down the Road of Lebanon” – Crisis Thinking on the Anti-Muslim Far Right, Mikkel Thorup / 14. Conclusions and Perspectives: The Re-Constitution of Europe, Poul F. Kjaer & Niklas Olsen Index . (shrink)

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a global public health disaster driven largely by antibiotic use in human health care. Doctors considering whether to prescribe antibiotics face an ethical conflict between upholding individual patient health and advancing public health aims. Existing literature mainly examines whether patients awaiting consultations desire or expect to receive antibiotic prescriptions, but does not report views of the wider public regarding conditions under which doctors should prescribe antibiotics. It also does not explore the ethical significance of public views (...) or their sensitivity to awareness of AMR risks or the standpoint (self-interested or impartial) taken by participants. Methods: An online survey was conducted with a sample of the U.S. public (n = 158). Participants were asked to indicate what relative priority should be given to individual patients and society-at-large from various standpoints and in various contexts, including antibiotic prescription. Results: Of the participants, 50.3% thought that doctors should generally prioritize individual patients over society, whereas 32.0% prioritized society over individual patients. When asked in the context of AMR, 39.2% prioritized individuals whereas 45.5% prioritized society. Participants were significantly less willing to prioritize society over individuals when they themselves were the patient, both in general (p = .001) and in relation to AMR specifically (p = .006). Conclusions: Participants’ attitudes were more oriented to society and sensitive to collective responsibility when informed about the social costs of antibiotic use and when considered from a third-person rather than first-person perspective. That is, as participants came closer to taking the perspective of an informed and impartial “ideal observer,” their support for prioritizing society increased. Our findings suggest that, insofar as antibiotic policies and practices should be informed by attitudes that are impartial and well-informed, there is significant support for prioritizing society. (shrink)

Khotbah terbaru dari Gereja fundamentalis naturalisme oleh Pastor Hofstadter. Seperti yang jauh lebih terkenal (atau terkenal karena kesalahan filosofis tanpa henti) bekerja Godel, Escher, Bach, ia memiliki kehampaan dangkal tetapi jika salah satu memahami bahwa ini adalah merajalela ilmiah yang mencampur isu yang nyata dalam sains filosofis yang (yaitu, satu-satunya masalah nyata adalah apa permainan bahasa kita harus bermain) maka hampir semua bunga menghilang. Saya menyediakan kerangka kerja untuk analisis yang didasarkan pada psikologi evolusioner dan karya Wittgenstein (sejak diperbarui dalam (...) tulisan saya yang lebih baru). -/- Mereka yang ingin komprehensif up to date kerangka perilaku manusia dari dua systEMS tampilan modern dapat berkonsultasi buku saya 'struktur Logis filsafat, psikologi, mind dan bahasa dalam Ludwig wittgenstein dan John Searle ' 2nd Ed (2019). Mereka yang tertarik pada tulisan saya lebih mungkin melihat 'berbicara monyet--filsafat, psikologi, ilmu, agama dan politik di planet yang ditakdirkan--artikel dan review 2006-2019 3rd ed (2019) dan bunuh diri utopian delusi di 21st Century 4th Ed (2019) . (shrink)

Nick Zangwill (2004, 2007) appears to be acquiring the status of repudiator-in-chief of emotion in music. He is invoked in this role by such authors as Kraut (2007, p. 67), Bonds (2014, p. 5), Robinson (2014), Young (2014, pp. vii, 1, 3–4, 151), Davies (2017) and Kania (2017). His ‘manifesto’ paper (2004) was recently reprinted in Lamarque and Olsen (2018, pp. 574–582). This development is unfortunate, because Zangwill, for all his radical-sounding theses, actually argues against views that hardly anyone (...) holds. What is more, some of his arguments in favour of the obvious seem confused and defective. But as for his really radical thesis that ‘Music, in itself, has nothing to do with emotion’, he provides hardly any justification. What is more, contrary to what Zangwill believes, such justification is not to be found in Hanslick, who in fact sees emotional content as a relatively important element of music. (shrink)

OBJETIVO -/- O estudante de Zootecnia e de Veterinária, quando se depara com a produção animal, um dos pilares importantes é a reprodução, uma vez que é a perpetuação da espécie, seja para gerar filhas de uma vaca campeã em produção leiteira e de um touro com rusticidade e com aptidão produtiva de corte, ou mesmo para reposição de um plantel, o mesmo deve estar consciente de que esse ramo é de extrema responsabilidade, já que estará intimamente lidando com a (...) vida e com um investimento que pode gerar lucros em demasia para a propriedade ou, se mal feito o manejo da reprodução, trazer sérios transtornos para a mesma. -/- Nesse trabalho, o estudante revisará os sucessos da puberdade e estacionalidade reprodutiva relacionando-os com os processos endócrinos e os fatores que afetam sua manifestação como os nutricionais, para compreender a maneira ao qual podem ser manipuladas. -/- -/- • _____INTRODUÇÃO -/- A puberdade marca o início da vida reprodutiva do animal, permitindo integrar o indivíduo ao seu ciclo produtivo. A estacionalidade é uma característica de adaptação que algumas espécies desenvolveram para fazer garantir a eficiência da reprodução e a sobrevivência dos filhotes. -/- -/- • _____PUBERDADE -/- A puberdade é atingida quando o animal é capaz de produzir e liberar gametas viáveis e funcionais (férteis). Na fêmea esse fato ocorre na primeira ovulação, que geralmente coincide com a manifestação do comportamento do cio; e nos machos durante a primeira ejaculação com espermatozoides viáveis. -/- Do ponto de vista da produção animal, puberdade prematura ou precoce, é importante para poder permitir a incorporação dos animais ao ciclo produtivo o mais rapidamente possível. No caso de touros holandeses, por exemplo, é desejável que produzam sêmen precocemente para incorporá-los a prova de progênie; nas fêmeas, entretanto, deve-se considerar que nem sempre é conveniente usar o primeiro ciclo ou cio para reprodução. É o caso das marrãs (porcas primíparas), onde é benéfico esperar até o segundo ou terceiro estro para aumentar o tamanho da ninhada. Também pode ser vantajoso esperar que o indivíduo alcance sua maturidade sexual, que ocorre quando a fêmea consegue se reproduzir sem sofrer efeitos adversos. A ovelha nascida na primavera, por exemplo, pode engravidar no outono seguinte e dar à luz no primeiro ano de vida, mas seu crescimento pode ser afetado; o mesmo ocorre com a novilha, em que o acasalamento precoce pode promover distorcia por falta de desenvolvimento pélvico. -/- A puberdade é um processo gradual e está intimamente relacionada à taxa de crescimento e ao metabolismo energético. O recém-nascido usa energia para funções vitais, principalmente termorregulação; esse feito se deve ao fato de os jovens possuírem uma superfície corporal muito elevada em relação ao seu volume. Durante o desenvolvi-mento subsequente dos tecidos também há prioridade no uso de nutrientes, que inicialmente favorecem o desenvolvimento do tecido ósseo e muscular, e uma vez que estes atingem determinado tamanho de acordo com as condições genéticas do indivíduo, inicia-se o desenvolvimento do tecido adiposo, que é indicativa de um reservatório de energia. É importante ressaltar que existe uma interação entre a genética e o meio ambiente, de forma que o potencial genético só será expresso se o meio ambiente for favorável. -/- Para que a ovulação ocorra, é necessário considerar o funcionamento do eixo hipotálamo-hipófise-gonodal. O aumento da frequência pulsátil do GnRH hipotalâmico e em consequência do LH hipofisário provoca a maturação do folículo em nível gonodal, o que aumenta a produção de estrógenos. O aumento dos estrogênios causa, por feedback positivo no hipotálamo, a liberação do pico pré-ovulatório de LH e, consequentemente, a ovulação. Na fase pré-púbere, a frequência dos pulsos de GnRH e LH é muito baixa e insuficiente para provocar a maturação folicular, pois o hipotálamo é inibido e, portanto, não ocorre ovulação. -/- A geração pulsátil de GnRH no momento reprodutivo adequado para desencadear o início da puberdade depende de uma rede neural complexa que, além dos neurônios GnRH, inclui outros neurônios e células da glia; ele também integra vários sinais internos e externos para o corpo. A morfologia dos neurônios GnRH também é única, uma vez que seus dendritos também podem funcionar como axônios, dando-lhes uma função distinta. A geração de pulsos também indica a necessidade de sincronização entre subpopulações de neurônios GnRH, que, acima de tudo, parece ser extrínseca a esses neurônios e envolve múltiplos hormônios e neurotransmissores -/- Se dois níveis de conexões aferentes são considerados, estima-se que cada neurônio de GnRH pode ser conectado a cerca de cinco milhões de outros neurônios; milhares de genes, então, podem estar envolvidos no processo da puberdade. A importância funcional e hierárquica de cada um desses genes no controle dos neurônios GnRH, juntamente com outros fatores neuronais e gliais, pode diferir entre as espécies. Existem, no entanto, componentes fundamentais que parecem ser comuns a todos os mamíferos e que se situam nos níveis hierárquicos mais elevados, ajudando a compreender a progressão do processo puberal. Assim, todas as espécies de mamíferos estudadas, por exemplo, têm aglomerados de neurônios kisspeptinérgicos (que secretam kisspeptina), envolvidos na regulação da secreção tônica e secreção cíclica de GnRH, que também se classifica como o elemento mais alto na hierarquia desse complexo neuronal após considerar os neurônios GnRH. -/- Sabe-se que o eixo hipotálamo-hipofisário-gonodal está ativo desde as primeiras fases da vida do indivíduo, mesmo antes do nascimento em certas espécies. A secreção de GnRH, no entanto, é suprimida mais tarde no desenvolvimento e permanece dessa forma até o período pré-púbere, quando será reativada gradualmente. -/- Por várias décadas, a supressão e reinicialização dos pulsos de GnRH foi atribuída a uma hipótese conhecida como teoria gonadostat que afirma que o centro tônico do hipotálamo é inibido devido à sua sensibilidade ao mecanismo de feedback negativo dos esteroides gonodais, é aumentado; portanto, o GnRH e a consequente secreção de gonadotrofinas (FSH e LH) são insuficientes para a ocorrência da maturação folicular e espermatogênese. Essa sensibilidade diminui progressivamente à medida que a puberdade se aproxima. -/- Sabe-se agora que existem fatores não gonodais que agem em paralelo com os esteroides para mediar mudanças no feedback negativo que também são específicos da espécie. -/- Na fêmea, o centro gerador de pulso cíclico também deve ser considerado, o qual é responsável por iniciar a primeira ovulação. O centro cíclico é composto por uma segunda subpopulação de neurônios GnRH que é reativada por meio de uma complexa interação entre vários sistemas neuronais inibitórios (que devem reduzir progressiva-mente sua influência) e outros sistemas excitatórios, que, por sua vez, operam por meio de diferentes neurotransmissores, como o ácido γ-amino-butírico (GABA) e seus receptores, glutamato, óxido nítrico e neuropeptídio Y (NPY). Esses fatores, juntamente com as alterações morfológicas observadas nos neurônios do GnRH à medida que a puberdade se aproxima, e com as interações e sinais aferentes das células gliais, levam a um padrão de progressão linear que culminará na reativação do centro cíclico. Esse processo era conhecido anteriormente como teoria da maturação central e faz parte das mudanças que configuram o processo para chegar à puberdade. A elevação nas concen-trações de estradiol subsequente à reativação gradual do centro gerador de pulso tônico GnRH provavelmente permitirá a maturação final do centro cíclico. -/- A forma como cada organismo estabelece o momento certo para iniciar as mudanças que levam à puberdade é conhecido; a existência de algum mecanismo neurobiológico que constitui um relógio interno pode ser considerada. No entanto, esse mecanismo afetaria principalmente o desenvolvimento neuronal no nível central; também seria difícil compará-lo com a maneira pela qual fatores externos ao indivíduo afetam o início da puberdade. Nessa perspectiva, um sistema que permita receber informações completas sobre o crescimento e desenvolvimento do indivíduo poderia ser mais prático. Os mediadores desse sistema incluem o hormônio do crescimento, IGF-I, leptina e outros substratos metabólicos. A leptina em particular, que sinaliza as reservas de tecido adiposo, é um dos elementos mais importantes e, embora não determine quando começa a puberdade, se atua como fator permissivo para que o processo progrida, uma vez que excede um nível limite. A consideração do estágio de desenvolvimento do animal para o início da puberdade era anteriormente conhecida como o peso corporal crítico ou teoria do lipostato. É importante considerar que as três teorias mencionadas não são exclusivas. -/- O mecanismo da puberdade nos machos é semelhante ao já descrito; entretanto, deve-se lembrar que no macho o centro cíclico não está ativo. À medida que a puberdade se aproxima, o crescimento testicular é desencadeado e, em ruminantes e suínos, o pênis que estava preso à mucosa prepucial é gradualmente liberado. -/- -/- • _____FATORES QUE INFLUENCIAM A PUBERDADE -/- Os animais podem manifestar a puberdade de três formas diferentes. Pode ser tardia e o animal demorar para estar apto a reprodução; precoce e o animal entrar na vida reprodutiva antes do esperado ou pode ser normal e o animal estar com boa conformação e idade. Para tanto, alguns fatores podem interferir à manifestação da puberdade pelos animais como a genética, idade e peso, nutrição, fotoperíodo e o próprio manejo adotado. -/- -/- Genética -/- O genótipo afeta a idade da puberdade, pois algumas raças são anteriores a outras. Nos bovinos, as raças europeias atingem a puberdade antes dos zebuínos, isto é, uma novilha ou novilho da raça holandesa atinge a puberdade primeiro que os animais da mesma idade e do mesmo peso da raça nelore, por exemplo. -/- Da mesma forma, as porcas da raça chinesa Meishan atingem a puberdade por volta dos 115 dias de idade, metade da idade das raças brancas. As ovelhas de raças de corte, da mesma forma, são mais precoces que os produtores de lã. As raças pequenas, da mesma forma, são geralmente mais precoces, pelo menos em bovinos (jersey x guzerá) e em caninos. Os híbridos, por outro lado, apresentam puberdade mais precoce que os puros, devido ao efeito da heterose. Por este motivo, em certas espécies são utilizadas linhas híbridas. -/- -/- Idade e peso -/- A tabela 1 mostra a idade média de início da puberdade em espécies domésticas. O peso vivo (PV) adulto é mais relevante para a idade na puberdade nos ruminantes, enquanto em suínos é menos decisivo. A tabela também apresenta a porcentagem de peso corporal necessária para a puberdade ocorrer de forma natural. -/- -/- Tabela 1: Idade e peso a puberdade das espécies domésticas -/- Espécie -/- Fêmea (meses) -/- Macho (meses) -/- PV adulto (%) -/- Gado holandês -/- 11 (8-15) -/- 11 (7-18) -/- 30-40 -/- Gado brahman -/- 19 -/- 17 -/- 45-60 -/- Caprinos e ovinos -/- 7 (4-14) -/- 7 (6-9) -/- 40-60 -/- Suínos -/- 6 (5-7) -/- 7 (5-8) -/- 75 -/- Equinos -/- 18 (12-19) -/- 14 (10-24) -/- - -/- Caninos -/- 12 (6-24) -/- 9 (5-12) -/- - -/- Felinos -/- 8 (4-12) -/- 9 (8-10) -/- - -/- Fonte: VALENCIA, 2018. -/- Nutrição -/- Como a puberdade está relacionada à taxa de crescimento, os animais que recebem uma nutrição adequada e balanceada apresentarão puberdade em uma idade mais jovem, ou seja, mais precocemente; ao contrário, a puberdade será tardia nos animais que sofreram restrição alimentar, que estão desnutridos ou que tiveram seu crescimento afetado por doenças infecciosas ou parasitárias. A superalimentação também não é recomendada, pois pode alterar tanto os sinais que são recebidos pelo hipotálamo quanto sua resposta a eles. -/- Logo, o manejo alimentar adotado deve estar de acordo com as normas estabeleci-das pelos especialistas na área, principalmente no tocante as exigências nutricionais que devem servir de regra na propriedade. Sendo assim, os animais entrarão em puberdade com as taxas de alta qualidade o que afetará positivamente na prole futura e dará retorno lucrativo ao proprietário. -/- -/- Época do ano (Fotoperíodo) -/- Em fêmeas de espécies sazonais, como ovelhas e cabras, existem certos requisitos de fotoperíodo que devem ser atendidos para que a puberdade ocorra. Nessas espécies, um período de exposição a dias longos é necessário, seguido por outro de exposição a dias curtos. Na verdade, os cordeiros e cabritos nascidos fora da estação, mesmo que tenham atingido o peso necessário, terão que esperar até o outono seguinte (a estação reprodutiva) para atingir a puberdade. Os machos, por outro lado, não estão sujeitos a essas limitações nos requisitos fotoperiódicos para apresentar a puberdade. -/- Em novilhas nascidas no outono, por outro lado, a puberdade ocorre antes de um ano de idade, no verão seguinte ou no início do outono, mais cedo do que nas nascidas na primavera, devido à exposição a longos dias durante os primeiros seis meses do ano após seu nascimento aceleram seu crescimento. Em gatos, o aumento do fotoperíodo também acelera o início da puberdade. -/- Em ovelhas e novilhas, a primeira ovulação que ocorre ao entrar na puberdade é silenciosa; ou seja, não é acompanhada de sinais comportamentais de cio como a micção frequente, inchamento da vulva, uma montando a outra e deixando-se montar etc., pois para que esse comportamento se manifeste, o sistema nervoso necessita de uma pré-sensibilização com progesterona que não estará presente até o próximo ciclo, após o desenvolvimento do corpo lúteo vindo desta primeira ovulação. -/- -/- Sociossexual -/- A interação de indivíduos da mesma espécie ou a presença ou ausência de sinais de bioestimulação, como feromônios, pode afetar o período de puberdade. A puberdade, por exemplo, é atrasada em porcas criadas individualmente em comparação com porcas criadas em grupo. Além disso, na porca, ovelha e cabra, a exposição ao macho estimula as fêmeas e a puberdade aparece mais precocemente. -/- -/- Manejo -/- Certas práticas de manejo podem acelerar a puberdade, especialmente no período pré-púbere. Em porcas próximas à puberdade, por exemplo, o estresse causado por procedimentos, como o transporte de um local para outro ou a exposição ao macho, faz com que apareça o estro em torno de sete dias após a realização do manejo mencionado. -/- -/- • _____ESTACIONALIDADE REPRODUTIVA -/- A estacionalidade ou sazonalidade reprodutiva é uma estratégia evolutiva que se desenvolveu em algumas espécies; tende a tornar a reprodução mais eficiente. Nos países de latitudes distantes do equador, o objetivo é que as crias nasçam na primavera, época do ano mais favorável, graças à abundância de alimentos e às amenas condições climáticas. No caso da ovelha, cuja gestação dura cinco meses, para que os partos ocorram na primavera, ela deve engravidar no outono (figura 1), quando os dias são curtos; enquanto a égua, tendo uma gestação de aproximadamente 11 meses, deve conceber na primavera, quando os dias são longos; assim, o parto ocorrerá na primavera do ano seguinte (figura 2). -/- -/- Figura 1: Esquema ilustrativo da estacionalidade reprodutiva na espécie ovina. Fonte: PIRES et al., 2011. -/- -/- Esta característica evolutiva desenvolvida pela seleção natural na maioria das espécies silvestres e ainda é conservado por algumas espécies domésticas, como ovelhas, cabras, cavalos e gatos. Em bovinos e suínos, ao contrário, a domesticação levou à perda quase total da estacionalidade reprodutiva. -/- A estacionalidade reprodutiva é codificada nos genes; significa então que a seleção natural favoreceu a propagação de genes que permitiam acoplar a hora do nascimento com a melhor época do ano, por isso passou a ser considerada um método anticoncepcional natural. -/- -/- Figura 2: ciclo reprodutivo anual em espécies estacionais; onde são apresentados os períodos de gestação e a forma como se agrupam os nascimentos, independentemente da época reprodutiva da espécie, em vermelho as fêmeas estão apresentando estro ou cio. Fonte: VALENCIA, 2018. -/- -/- Fotoperíodo -/- Para sincronizar o período fértil com a época mais favorável do ano, a maioria das espécies sazonais usa o fotoperíodo (quantidade de luz diária ao longo do ano). -/- Este sinal ambiental é seguro, confiável e se repete a cada ano. Ovinos e caprinos se reproduzem na época do ano em que os dias são curtos e os equinos quando são longos. O grau de sazonalidade depende da origem da raça. As raças nativas de países localizados em latitudes elevadas (> 50°,ovelhas: soay, blackface, suffolk; cabras: saanen, alpino francês, toggenburg; equinos: puro-sangue, hanoveriano) terão uma estacionalidade mais acentuada do que as latitudes menores ou mediterrâneas (ovelhas: merino; cabras: murciana granadina; equinos: quarto de milha). Também existem raças de latitudes próximas ao Equador cuja estacionalidade é baixa ou nula (ovelhas: raças de pelo, crioulas; cabras: raças africanas e asiáticas) (tabela 2). -/- Para a maioria das raças de ovinos e caprinos, a estação reprodutiva começa no final do verão e início do outono; caracteriza-se pela apresentação de ciclos estrais sucessivos, e termina no final do inverno, quando se inicia o anestro, que se caracteriza pela ausência de ovulação. Nos equinos, ocorre o contrário, uma vez que a estação reprodutiva ocorre na primavera e no verão. -/- -/- Tabela 2: Relação entre a origem da raça e o grau de estacionalidade ou sazonalidade -/- Espécie -/- Alta -/- Média -/- Baixa -/- Ovinos -/- Suffolk, raças britânicas de lã e corte -/- Merino -/- Pelibuey, crioulas -/- Caprinos -/- Saanen, alpino, toggenburg -/- Murciana granadina -/- Crioula -/- Equinos -/- Puro-sangue, hanoveriano, quarto de milha -/- - -/- Crioula, burros -/- Fonte: VALENCIA, 2018. -/- -/- Mecanismo neuroendócrino da estacionalidade -/- Durante o período de anestro, o fotoperíodo exerce efeito inibitório sobre o centro tônico do GnRH no hipotálamo, diminuindo a frequência de pulso. Consequentemente, a pulsatilidade do LH também diminui, que agora é incapaz de induzir a maturação folicular, o aumento dos estrogênios, o pico pré-ovulatório de LH e, portanto, a ovulação. -/- Isso ocorre porque durante o anestro a sensibilidade do hipotálamo ao mecanismo de feedback negativo dos estrogênios e de outros fatores de origem não gonodal é aumentada. Ao aproximar-se da estação reprodutiva, a sensibilidade hipotalâmica diminui e o aumento da pulsatilidade do GnRH causa as mudanças que culminam na ovulação. Portanto, o mecanismo endócrino do anestro estacional é semelhante ao do anestro pré-púbere e de alguns outros tipos de anestro. -/- A estacionalidade é um bom exemplo da interação entre o meio ambiente e o sistema neuroendócrino, pois o organismo é capaz de traduzir um sinal externo ambiental, como o fotoperíodo, em um sinal hormonal interno, que neste caso é a melatonina. -/- A glândula pineal secreta melatonina durante as horas de escuridão. Os animais sazonais apresentam um ritmo reprodutivo endógeno, que é regulado por janelas de fotossensibilidade, determinadas por mudanças na duração do dia. O sinal luminoso é captado pela retina e conduzido, via nervo, pelo trato retino-hipotalâmico até o núcleo supraquiasmático, que funciona como o relógio biológico do corpo. Daí o sinal viaja para o núcleo para-ventricular, depois para o gânglio cervical e, finalmente, para a glândula pineal, que responde secretando melatonina (figura 3). -/- Nas ovelhas, a estação reprodutiva começa quando a duração do dia diminui e, naturalmente, a noite aumenta; na égua, ocorre quando os dias se alongam. -/- A primavera não é necessariamente a melhor época do ano em todas as regiões do globo. Nas latitudes tropicais, a primavera coincide com a seca e não com a abundância de forragem, aspecto a ser levado em consideração ao programar a reprodução. -/- Outro ponto importante a considerar é que as raças europeias sazonais mantêm sua estacionalidade no Brasil. -/- -/- Figura 3: Mecanismo do fotoperíodo em ovinos e a melatonina. Fonte: HAFEZ, 2004. -/- -/- Estacionalidade no macho -/- O macho é menos afetado que a fêmea pelas mudanças típicas de cada época do ano, já que sua função reprodutiva não é necessariamente interrompida durante o anestro ou repouso sexual, embora a produção de hormônios reprodutivos, tamanho e tônus testicular, a libido, as características qualitativas e quantitativas do ejaculado e a fertilidade do esperma podem ser diminuídas. O nível de afetação depende do grau de sazonalidade da raça e da latitude. Por fim, os efeitos do fotoperíodo devem ser separados dos nutricionais, que também variam com a época do ano. -/- -/- REFERÊNCIAS BIBLIOGRÁFICAS -/- -/- BEARDEN, Henry Joe et al. Reproducción animal aplicada. México: Manual Moderno, 1982. -/- BROOKS, P. H.; COLE, D. J. A. The effect of the presence of a boar on the attainment of puberty in gilts. Reproduction, v. 23, n. 3, p. 435-440, 1970. -/- CARDOSO, Daniel; DE PAULA NOGUEIRA, Guilherme. Mecanismos neuroendócrinos envolvidos na puberdade de novilhas. Arquivos de Ciências Veterinárias e Zoologia da Unipar, v. 10, n. 1, 2007. -/- CHEMINEAU, P. et al. Induction and persistence of pituitary and ovarian activity in the out-of-season lactating dairy goat after a treatment combining a skeleton photoperiod, melatonin and the male effect. Reproduction, v. 78, n. 2, p. 497-504, 1986. -/- CLARKE, Iain J. et al. Kisspeptin and seasonality in sheep. Peptides, v. 30, n. 1, p. 154-163, 2009. -/- CORTEEL, J. M. Production, storage and insemination of goat semen. In: Management and Reproduction in Sheep and Goats Symposium, Madison, Wis. (USA), 1977. University of Wisconsin, 1977. -/- CUNNINGHAM, James. Tratado de fisiologia veterinária. Elsevier Health Sciences, 2011. -/- CUPPS, Perry T. (Ed.). Reproduction in domestic animals. Elsevier, 1991. -/- DUKES, Henry Hugh; SWENSON, Melvin J.; REECE, William O. Dukes fisiologia dos animais domésticos. Editora Guanabara Koogan, 1996. -/- DÝRMUNDSSON, Ó. R.; LEES, J. L. Effect of rams on the onset of breeding activity in Clun Forest ewe lambs. The Journal of Agricultural Science, v. 79, n. 2, p. 269-271, 1972. -/- EBLING, F. J. P.; FOSTER, D. L. Photoperiod requirements for puberty differ from those for the onset of the adult breeding season in female sheep. Reproduction, v. 84, n. 1, p. 283-293, 1988. -/- FIELDS, Michael J.; SAND, Robert S.; YELICH, Joel V. (Ed.). Factors affecting calf crop: Biotechnology of reproduction. CRC Press, 2001. -/- HAFEZ, Elsayed Saad Eldin; HAFEZ, Bahaa. Reprodução animal. São Paulo: Manole, 2004. -/- HUGHES, P. E.; PHILIP, G.; SISWADI, R. The effects of contact frequency and transport on the efficacy of the boar effect. Animal Reproduction Science, v. 46, n. 1-2, p. 159-165, 1997. -/- KARSCH, FRED J. et al. Neuroendocrine basis of seasonal reproduction. In: Proceedings of the 1983 Laurentian Hormone Conference. Academic Press, 1984. p. 185-232. -/- LINCOLN, G. A.; SHORT, R. V. Seasonal breeding: nature's contraceptive. In: Proceedings of the 1979 Laurentian Hormone Conference. Academic Press, 1980. p. 1-52. -/- MELLO, Raquel Rodrigues Costa. Puberdade e maturidade sexual em touros bovinos. Agropecuária Científica no Semiárido, v. 10, n. 3, p. 11-28, 2015. -/- MEZA‐HERRERA, C. A. et al. Neuroendocrine, metabolic and genomic cues signalling the onset of puberty in females. Reproduction in Domestic Animals, v. 45, n. 6, p. e495-e502, 2010. -/- MONTEIRO, Claudia Dias; BICUDO, Sony Dimas; TOMA, Hugo Shisei. Puberdade em fêmeas ovinas. Pubvet, v. 4, p. Art. 850-857, 2010. -/- OLIVEIRA, Daniel de Jesus Cardoso de. Mecanismos neuroendócrinos envolvidos na puberdade de novilhas da raça Nelore. 2006. Tese de Doutorado em Medicina Veterinária. Universidade de São Paulo. -/- OLSTER, DEBORAH H.; FOSTER, DOUGLAS L. Control of gonadotropin secretion in the male during puberty: a decrease in response to steroid inhibitory feedback in the absence of an increase in steroid-independent drive in the sheep. Endocrinology, v. 118, n. 6, p. 2225-2234, 1986. -/- PIRES, Bruno Carlos et al. Métodos para elevar o ritmo reprodutivo dos ovinos. PUBVET, Londrina, V. 5, N. 11, Ed. 158, Art. 1071, 2011. -/- PLANT, Tony M.; ZELEZNIK, Anthony J. (Ed.). Knobil and Neill's physiology of reproduction. New York: Academic Press, 2014. -/- RAMIREZ, Domingo V.; MCCANN, S. M. Comparison of the regulation of luteinizing hormone (LH) secretion in immature and adult rats. Endocrinology, v. 72, n. 3, p. 452-464, 1963. -/- ROSER, JANET F.; HUGHES, JOHN P. Seasonal effects on seminal quality, plasma hormone concentrations, and GnRH‐induced LH response in fertile and subfertile stallions. Journal of andrology, v. 13, n. 3, p. 214-223, 1992. -/- SALOMONI, Eduardo et al. Idade e peso à puberdade em fêmeas de corte puras e cruzas em campo natural. Pesquisa Agropecuária Brasileira, v. 23, n. 10, p. 1171-1179, 1988. -/- SMITH, Jeremy T.; CLARKE, Iain J. Seasonal breeding as a neuroendocrine model for puberty in sheep. Molecular and cellular endocrinology, v. 324, n. 1-2, p. 102-109, 2010. -/- VALENCIA, J. Pubertad y estacionalidad reproductiva. In. PORTA, L. R.; MEDRANO, J. H. H. Fisiología reproductiva de los animales domésticos. Cidade do México: FMVZ-UNAM, 2018. -/- WHITTEMORE, Colin et al. The science and practice of pig production. Blackwell Science Ltd, 1998. -/- -/- -/- FIXAÇÃO DO ASSUNTO -/- -/- 1. Defina o que é puberdade e como ela manifesta-se no corpo. -/- -/- -/- 2. Diferencie puberdade de maturidade sexual. -/- -/- -/- 3. Quais são os fenômenos que devem ser observados em fêmeas que estão entrando na puberdade? -/- -/- -/- 4. Qual o papel do GnRH e do IGF-I sobre a puberdade? -/- 5. Um produtor possui duas ovelhas e um carneiro reprodutor, as ovelhas possuem idade e peso, mas não manifestaram seu primeiro cio, quais elementos que você recomenda ao produtor para induzir a ciclicidade dessas fêmeas? -/- -/- -/- 6. De forma geral, quais os fatores que podem afetar a entrada na puberdade dos animais? -/- -/- -/- 7. Defina estacionalidade reprodutiva. -/- -/- -/- 8. O que é fotoperíodo e qual sua importância para a reprodução dos animais domésticos? -/- -/- -/- 9. Defina as relações existentes entre a origem da raça e o grau de estacionalidade e como tais teorias se aplicam ao rebanho brasileiro. -/- -/- -/- 10. Qual o papel da glândula pineal para a estacionalidade reprodutiva? -/- -/- -/- 11. Por que os machos são menos afetados pela sazonalidade reprodutiva do que as fêmeas? -/- -/- -/- 12. Sabendo-se sobre os termos de puberdade e estacionalidade e as características de ambos nas espécies domésticas, pede-se: um criador deseja obter 5 novas crias ovinas e 5 caprinas em seu plantel até o final do ano, para tanto ele ainda possui um ano e está na estação do verão, sabendo-se sobre a estacionalidade dessas espécies elabore um projeto reprodutivo de modo que essas 10 fêmeas possam gerar uma cria cada até a primavera. -/- -/- Dados: 10 fêmeas gerando 10 crias. 1 macho ovino e 1 caprino. Fêmeas com 1 ano de idade (2º cio) e peso corporal = 55% do peso adulto. Verão de 2020 para parir na primavera de 2020. (shrink)

Recent studies indicate that indicative conditionals like "If people wear masks, the spread of Covid-19 will be diminished" require a probabilistic dependency between their antecedents and consequents to be acceptable (Skovgaard-Olsen et al., 2016). But it is easy to make the slip from this claim to the thesis that indicative conditionals are acceptable only if this probabilistic dependency results from a causal relation between antecedent and consequent. According to Pearl (2009), understanding a causal relation involves multiple, hierarchically organized conceptual (...) dimensions: prediction, intervention, and counterfactual dependence. In a series of experiments, we test the hypothesis that these conceptual dimensions are differentially encoded in indicative and counterfactual conditionals. If this hypothesis holds, then there are limits as to how much of a causal relation is captured by indicative conditionals alone. Our results show that the acceptance of indicative and counterfactual conditionals can become dissociated. Furthermore, it is found that the acceptance of both is needed for accepting a causal relation between two co-occurring events. The implications that these findings have for the hypothesis above, and for recent debates at the intersection of the psychology of reasoning and causal judgment, are critically discussed. Our findings are consistent with viewing indicative conditionals as answering predictive queries requiring evidential relevance (even in the absence of direct causal relations). Counterfactual conditionals in contrast target causal relevance, specifically. Finally, we discuss the implications our results have for the yet unsolved question of how reasoners succeed in constructing causal models from verbal descriptions. (shrink)

In this paper, new evidence is presented for the assumption that the reason-relation reading of indicative conditionals ('if A, then C') reflects a conventional implicature. In four experiments, it is investigated whether relevance effects found for the probability assessment of indicative conditionals (Skovgaard-Olsen, Singmann, and Klauer, 2016a) can be classified as being produced by a) a conversational implicature, b) a (probabilistic) presupposition failure, or c) a conventional implicature. After considering several alternative hypotheses and the accumulating evidence from other studies (...) as well, we conclude that the evidence is most consistent with the Relevance Effect being the outcome of a conventional implicature. This finding indicates that the reason-relation reading is part of the semantic content of indicative conditionals, albeit not part of their primary truth-conditional content. (shrink)

Suppose that two competing norms, N1 and N2, can be identified such that a given person’s response can be interpreted as correct according to N1 but incorrect according to N2. Which of these two norms, if any, should one use to interpret such a response? In this paper we seek to address this fundamental problem by studying individual variation in the interpretation of conditionals by establishing individual profiles of the participants based on their case judgments and reflective attitudes. To investigate (...) the participants’ reflective attitudes we introduce a new experimental paradigm called the Scorekeeping Task. As a case study, we identify the participants who follow the Suppositional Theory of conditionals (N1) versus Inferentialism (N2) and investigate to what extent internally consistent competence models can be reconstructed for the participants on this basis. After extensive empirical investigations, an apparent reasoning error with and-to-if inferences was found in one of these two groups. The implications of this case study for debates on the proper role of normative considerations in psychology are discussed. (shrink)

It is widely held that there are important differences between indicative conditionals (e.g. “If the authors are linguists, they have written a linguistics paper”) and subjunctive conditionals (e.g. “If the authors had been linguists, they would have written a linguistics paper”). A central difference is that indicatives and subjunctives convey different stances towards the truth of their antecedents. Indicatives (often) convey neutrality: for example, about whether the authors in question are linguists. Subjunctives (often) convey the falsity of the antecedent: for (...) example, that the authors in question are not linguists. This paper tests prominent accounts of how these different stances are conveyed: whether by presupposition or conversational implicature. Experiment 1 tests the presupposition account by investigating whether the stances project – remain constant – when embedded under operators like negations, possibility modals, and interrogatives, a key characteristic of presuppositions. Experiment 2 tests the conversational-implicature account by investigating whether the stances can be cancelled without producing a contradiction, a key characteristic of implicatures. The results provide evidence that both stances – neutrality about the antecedent in indicatives and the falsity of the antecedent in subjunctives – are conveyed by conversational implicatures. (shrink)

In this study we investigate the influence of reason-relation readings of indicative conditionals and ‘and’/‘but’/‘therefore’ sentences on various cognitive assessments. According to the Frege-Grice tradition, a dissociation is expected. Specifically, differences in the reason-relation reading of these sentences should affect participants’ evaluations of their acceptability but not of their truth value. In two experiments we tested this assumption by introducing a relevance manipulation into the truth-table task as well as in other tasks assessing the participants’ acceptability and probability evaluations. Across (...) the two experiments a strong dissociation was found. The reason-relation reading of all four sentences strongly affected their probability and acceptability evaluations, but hardly affected their respective truth evaluations. Implications of this result for recent work on indicative conditionals are discussed. (shrink)

Contemporary discussions about operational definition often hark back to Stanley Smith Stevens’ classic papers on psychological operationism (1935ab). Still, he was far from the only psychologist to call for conceptual hygiene. Some of Stevens’ direct colleagues at Harvard---most notably B. F. Skinner and E. G. Boring---were also actively applying Bridgman’s conceptual strictures to the study of mind and behavior. In this paper, I shed new light on the history of operationism by reconstructing the Harvard debates about operational definition in the (...) years before Stevens published his seminal articles. Building on a large set of archival evidence from the Harvard University Archives, I argue that we can get a more complete understanding of Stevens’ contributions if we better grasp the operationisms of his former teachers and direct colleagues at Harvard’s Department of Philosophy and Psychology. (shrink)

Felix reaches up to catch a high line drive to left field and fires the ball off to Benji at home plate, who then tags the runner trying to score. For Felix to catch the ball and transfer it from his glove to his throwing hand, he needs to have a sense of where his hands are relative to one another and the rest of his body. This sort of information is subconsciously tracked in the body schema (or postural schema), (...) a representation of the current bodily posture that is updated on the basis of proprioceptive inputs. While the existence of the body schema in not in dispute, its origin is. After reviewing the competing proposals, I introduce the conceptual tools needed to move the debate forward and apply them to the question of the extent to which the body schema could be learned from perceptual input in utero. I argue that it could give rise to something recognizable as the body schema, though not quite rising to the level of the mature body schema. After considering the implications for further research on the origins of the body schema, I show how these results apply to other body representations, helping clarify the vexing question of the number, nature, and interactions among body representations in the brain. This theoretical work also promises to advance our understanding and treatment protocols for disorders affecting such body representations (e.g., anorexia nervosa). (shrink)

Statements containing epistemic modals (e.g., “by spring 2023 most European countries may have the Covid-19 pandemic under control”) are common expressions of epistemic uncertainty. In this paper, previous published findings (Knobe & Yalcin, 2014; Khoo & Phillips, 2018) on the opposition between Contextualism and Relativism for epistemic modals are re-examined. It is found that these findings contain a substantial degree of individual variation. To investigate whether participants differ in their interpretation of epistemic modals, an experiment with multiple phases and sessions (...) is used to classify participants according to the three semantic theories of Relativism, Contextualism, and Objectivism. Through this study, some of the first empirical evidence for the kind of truth-value shifts postulated by semantic Relativism is presented. It is furthermore found that participants’ disagreement judgments match their truth evaluations and that participants are capable of distinguishing between truth and justification. In a second experimental session, it is investigated whether participants thus classified follow the norm of retraction which Relativism uses to account for argumentation with epistemic modals. Here the results are less favorable for Relativism. In a second experiment, these results are replicated and the normative beliefs of participants concerning the norm of retraction are investigated following work on measuring norms by Bicchieri (2017). Again, it is found that on average participants show no strong preferences concerning the norm of retraction for epistemic modals. Yet, it was found that participants who had committed to Objectivism and had training in logics applied the norm of retraction to might-statements. These results present a substantial challenge to the account of argumentation with epistemic modals presented in MacFarlane (2014), as discussed. Keywords: Epistemic Modals, Relativism, Norm Conflicts, Retraction, Semantics, Truth Conditions, Argumentation. (shrink)

In this paper, a critical discussion is made of the role of entailments in the so-called New Paradigm of psychology of reasoning based on Bayesian models of rationality (Elqayam & Over, 2013). It is argued that assessments of probabilistic coherence cannot stand on their own, but that they need to be integrated with empirical studies of intuitive entailment judgments. This need is motivated not just by the requirements of probability theory itself, but also by a need to enhance the interdisciplinary (...) integration of the psychology of reasoning with formal semantics in linguistics. The constructive goal of the paper is to introduce a new experimental paradigm, called the Dialogical Entailment task, to supplement current trends in the psychology of reasoning towards investigating knowledge-rich, social reasoning under uncertainty (Oaksford and Chater, 2019). As a case study, this experimental paradigm is applied to reasoning with conditionals and negation operators (e.g. CEM, wide and narrow negation). As part of the investigation, participants’ entailment judgments are evaluated against their probability evaluations to assess participants’ cross-task consistency over two experimental sessions. (shrink)

In this paper, a novel experimental task is developed for testing the highly influential, but experimentally underexplored, possible worlds account of conditionals (Stalnaker, 1968; Lewis, 1973). In Experiment 1, this new task is used to test both indicative and subjunctive conditionals. For indicative conditionals, five competing truth tables are compared, including the previously untested, multi-dimensional possible worlds semantics of Bradley (2012). In Experiment 2, these results are replicated and it is shown that they cannot be accounted for by an alternative (...) hypothesis proposed by our reviewers. In Experiment 3, individual variation in truth assignments of indicative conditionals is investigated via Bayesian mixture models that classify participants as following one of several competing models. As a novelty of this study, it is found that a possible worlds semantics of Lewis and Stalnaker is capable of accounting for participants’ aggregate truth value assignments in this task. Applied to indicative conditionals, we show across three experiments, that the theory both captures participants’ truth values at the aggregate level (Experiments 1 and 2) and that it makes up the largest subgroup in the analysis of individual variation in our experimental paradigm (Experiment 3). (shrink)

A number of papers have applied the CNI model of moral judgments to investigate deontological and consequentialist response tendencies (Gawronski et al., 2017). A controversy has emerged concerning the methodological assumptions of the CNI model (Baron & Goodwin, 2020, 2021; Gawronski et al. 2020). In this paper, we contribute to this debate by extending the CNI paradigm with a skip option. This allows us to test an invariance assumption that the CNI model shares with prominent process-dissociation models in cognitive and (...) social psychology (Klauer et al., 2015). Like for these models, the present experiments found violations of the invariance assumption for the CNI model. In Experiment 2, we replicate these results and selectively influence the new parameter for the skip option. In addition, structural equation modeling reveals that previous findings for the relationship between gender and the CNI parameters are completely mediated by the association of gender with primary psychopathy. (shrink)

The aim is to motivate theoretically a relevance approach to conditionals in a comparative discussion of the main alternatives. In particular, it will be argued that a relevance approach to conditionals is better motivated than the suppositional theory currently enjoying wide endorsement. In the course of this discussion, an argument will be presented for why failures of the epistemic relevance of the antecedent for the consequent should be counted as genuine semantic defects. Furthermore, strategies for dealing with compositionality and the (...) perceived objective purport of indicative conditionals will be put forward. (shrink)

An organizing theme of the dissertation is the issue of how to make philosophical theories useful for scientific purposes. An argument for the contention is presented that it doesn’t suffice merely to theoretically motivate one’s theories, and make them compatible with existing data, but that philosophers having this aim should ideally contribute to identifying unique and hard to vary predictions of their theories. This methodological recommendation is applied to the ranking-theoretic approach to conditionals, which emphasizes the epistemic relevance and the (...) expression of reason relations as part of the semantics of the natural language conditional. As a first step, this approach is theoretically motivated in a comparative discussion of other alternatives in psychology of reasoning, like the suppositional theory of conditionals, and novel approaches to the problems of compositionality and accounting for the objective purport of indicative conditionals are presented. In a second step, a formal model is formulated, which allows us to derive quantitative predictions from the ranking-theoretic approach, and it is investigated which novel avenues of empirical research that this model opens up for. Finally, a treatment is given of the problem of logical omniscience as it concerns the issue of whether ranking theory (and other similar approaches) makes too idealized assumptions about rationality to allow for interesting applications in psychology of reasoning. Building on the work of Robert Brandom, a novel solution to this problem is presented, which both opens up for new perspectives in psychology of reasoning and appears to be capable of satisfying a range of constraints on bridge principles between logic and norms of reasoning, which would otherwise stand in a tension. (shrink)

Ranking theory is a formal epistemology that has been developed in over 600 pages in Spohn's recent book The Laws of Belief, which aims to provide a normative account of the dynamics of beliefs that presents an alternative to current probabilistic approaches. It has long been received in the AI community, but it has not yet found application in experimental psychology. The purpose of this paper is to derive clear, quantitative predictions by exploiting a parallel between ranking theory and a (...) statistical model called logistic regression. This approach is illustrated by the development of a model for the conditional inference task using Spohn's ranking theoretic approach to conditionals. (shrink)

The main goal of this paper is to investigate what explanatory resources Robert Brandom’s distinction between acknowledged and consequential commitments affords in relation to the problem of logical omniscience. With this distinction the importance of the doxastic perspective under consideration for the relationship between logic and norms of reasoning is emphasized, and it becomes possible to handle a number of problematic cases discussed in the literature without thereby incurring a commitment to revisionism about logic. One such case in particular is (...) the preface paradox, which will receive an extensive treatment. As we shall see, the problem of logical omniscience not only arises within theories based on deductive logic; but also within the recent paradigm shift in psychology of reasoning. So dealing with this problem is important not only for philosophical purposes but also from a psychological perspective. (shrink)

Logicians disagree about how validity—the very heart of logic—should be understood. Many different formal systems have been born due to this disagreement. This thesis examines how teachers explain the subject matter of logic to students in introductory logic textbooks, and demonstrates the different explanations teachers use. These differences help explain why logicians have different intuitions about validity.

Habilitation thesis in psychology. The book consists of a collection of reasoning studies. The experimental investigations will take us from people’s reasoning about probabilities, entailments, pragmatic factors, argumentation, and causality to morality. An overarching theme of the book is norm pluralism and individual differences in rationality research.

In this manuscript we study individual variation in the interpretation of conditionals by establishing individual profiles of the participants based on their behavioral responses and reflective attitudes. To investigate the participants’ reflective attitudes we introduce a new experimental paradigm called the Scorekeeping Task, and a Bayesian mixture model tailored to analyze the data. The goal is thereby to identify the participants who follow the Suppositional Theory of conditionals and Inferentialism and to investigate their performance on the uncertain and-to-if inference task.

The purpose of this paper is to consider the explanatory resources that Robert Brandom‟s distinction between acknowledged and consequential commitments affords in relation to the problem of logical omniscience. With this distinction the importance of the doxastic perspective under consideration for the relationship between logic and norms of reasoning is emphasized, and it becomes possible to handle a number of problematic cases discussed in the literature without thereby incurring a commitment to revisionism about logic. 12.

To go on in the business of living, man needs a basic certainty. This is what I interpret as metaphysics. A prerequisite for making metaphysics is that you have some understanding of Biography of Philosophy. On the other hand, life is not a pre-given entity; it depends on what you do out it. This is the action directed aspects of life. In short, what I am arguing for is that the human being itself is the foundation for every story we (...) tell and re-tell about what we have done, and what we are doing in review of our plans and project for the future. (shrink)

This is an encyclopedia entry on consequentializing. It explains what consequentializing is, what makes it possible, why someone might be motivated to consequentialize, and how to consequentialize a non-consequentialist theory.

This paper explains the importance of classifying argumentation schemes, and outlines how schemes are being used in current research in artificial intelligence and computational linguistics on argument mining. It provides a survey of the literature on scheme classification. What are so far generally taken to represent a set of the most widely useful defeasible argumentation schemes are surveyed and explained systematically, including some that are difficult to classify. A new classification system covering these centrally important schemes is built.

Blame is multifarious. It can be passionate or dispassionate. It can be expressed or kept private. We blame both the living and the dead. And we blame ourselves as well as others. What’s more, we blame ourselves, not only for our moral failings, but also for our non-moral failings: for our aesthetic bad taste, gustatory self-indulgence, or poor athletic performance. And we blame ourselves both for things over which we exerted agential control (e.g., our voluntary acts) and for things over (...) which we lacked such control (e.g., our desires, beliefs, and intentions). I argue that, despite this manifest diversity in our blaming practices, it’s possible to provide comprehensive account of blame. Indeed, I propose a set of necessary and sufficient conditions that aims to specify blame’s extension in terms of its constitution as opposed to its function. And I argue that this proposal has a number of advantages beyond accounting for blame in all its disparate forms. For one, it can account for the fact that one’s having had control over whether one was to φ is a necessary condition for one’s being fittingly blamed for having φ-ed. For another, it can account for why, unlike fitting shame, fitting blame is always deserved, which in turn explains why there is something morally problematic about ridding oneself of one’s fitting self-blame (e.g., one’s fitting guilt). (shrink)

What is the relationship between logic and thought? One view is that logic merely describes how people think. But this view – called 'psychologism' – cannot be quite right. Logic cannot describe how people reason, because although people can reason well, they can also reason badly. The obvious response is to say that logic does not describe how people do think, but rather prescribes how they ought to think. If logic describes how people ought to reason, then if the premises (...) of a logical argument imply the conclusion of that argument and you believe the premises, then you ought to believe the conclusion. According to classical logic the premise, 'grass is green' implies the conclusion, 'the sky is blue or the sky is not blue', but it seems absurd to say that because I believe that grass is green, I ought to believe that the sky is blue or the sky is not blue. What has gone wrong here? Should the principle, 'if the premises imply the conclusion and you believe the premises, then you ought to believe the conclusion' be changed? If so, perhaps it would be more correct to say, 'if the premises imply the conclusion and you believe the premises, then you have reason to believe the conclusion'. Or is classical logic to blame? Are we mistaken in thinking that 'grass is green' implies 'the sky is blue or the sky is not blue'? I examine a number of arguments that relate to this question. I argue that classical logic deserves a philosophy of logic that does not imply that classical logic is not proper logic. (shrink)

Ranking theory is one of the salient formal representations of doxastic states. It differs from others in being able to represent belief in a proposition (= taking it to be true), to also represent degrees of belief (i.e. beliefs as more or less firm), and thus to generally account for the dynamics of these beliefs. It does so on the basis of fundamental and compelling rationality postulates and is hence one way of explicating the rational structure of doxastic states. Thereby (...) it provides foundations for accounts of defeasible or nonmonotonic reasoning. It has widespread applications in philosophy, it proves to be most useful in Artificial Intelligence, and it has started to find applications as a model of reasoning in psychology. (shrink)

Would compulsory treatment or vaccination for Covid-19 be justified? In England, there would be significant legal barriers to it. However, we offer a conditional ethical argument in favour of allowing compulsory treatment and vaccination, drawing on an ethical comparison with external constraints—such as quarantine, isolation and ‘lockdown’—that have already been authorised to control the pandemic. We argue that, if the permissive English approach to external constraints for Covid-19 has been justified, then there is a case for a similarly permissive approach (...) to compulsory medical interventions. (shrink)

Berkeley, Hume, and Russell rejected the traditional analysis of substances in terms of qualities which are supported by an "unknowable substratum." To them the proper alternative seemed obvious. Eliminate the substratum in which qualities are alleged to inhere, leaving a bundle of coexisting qualities--a view that we may call the Bundle Theory or BT. But by rejecting only part of the traditional substratum theory instead of replacing it entirely, Bundle Theories perpetuate certain confusions which are found in the Substratum Doctrine. (...) I examine two major types of BT developed by Russell and by G. F. Stout with the intention of showing that (1) the seemingly innocuous concept of "a quality" employed by these versions cannot be used to state their theories coherently, and (2) the fatal problems that the BT encounters point to a more satisfactory and interesting alternative to both the Substratum Doctrine and the BT. This is a view that I call the Qualified Particulars Theory. In a final section I draw morals from this discussion that apply to the analogous Humean view that a mind is a "bundle of perceptions and sensations.". (shrink)

There is, on a given moral view, an agent-centered restriction against performing acts of a certain type if that view prohibits agents from performing an instance of that act-type even to prevent two or more others from each performing a morally comparable instance of that act-type. The fact that commonsense morality includes many such agent-centered restrictions has been seen by several philosophers as a decisive objection against consequentialism. Despite this, I argue that agent-centered restrictions are more plausibly accommodated within a (...) consequentialist framework than within the more standard side-constraint framework. For I argue that when we combine agent-relative consequentialism with a Kantian theory of value, we arrive at a version of consequentialism, which I call 'Kantsequentialism', that has several advantages over the standard side-constraint approach to accommodating constraints. What’s more, I argue that Kantsequentialism doesn’t have any of the disadvantages that critics of consequentializing have presumed that such a theory must have. (shrink)

In this article, I argue that online echo chambers are in some cases and in some respects good. I do not attempt to refute arguments that they are harmful, but I argue that they are sometimes beneficial. In the first section, I argue that it is sometimes good to be insulated from views with which one disagrees. In the second section, I argue that the software-design principles that give rise to online echo chambers have a lot to recommend them. Further, (...) the opposing principle, serendipity, could give rise to serious harm, in light of the conclusion of the first section that sometimes we are better off being insulated from some content online. In the third section, I argue that polarization can be a useful tool for inculcating the appropriate attitudes in a person. (shrink)

The idea that we may continue to exist in a bodiless condition after our death has long played an important role in beliefs about immortality, ultimate rewards and punishments, the transmigration of souls, and the like. There has also been long and heated disagreement about whether the idea of disembodied existence even makes sense, let alone whether anybody can or does survive dissolution of his material form. It may seem doubtful that anything new could be added to the debate at (...) this late date, but I hope to show that this is not so. I will explore the problem of disembodiment from a somewhat different direction than has been tried before, one that leads to what seem to me more interesting and more definite conclusions about its unintelligibility. Furthermore, the approach I will be taking puts both the traditional mind-body problem and the competing claims of dualism and physicalism in a fresh light that can help us to understand better the nature of our embodied existence. (shrink)

I argue that Plato believes that the soul must be both the principle of motion and the subject of cognition because it moves things specifically by means of its thoughts. I begin by arguing that the soul moves things by means of such acts as examination and deliberation, and that this view is developed in response to Anaxagoras. I then argue that every kind of soul enjoys a kind of cognition, with even plant souls having a form of Aristotelian discrimination (...) (krisis), and that there is therefore no completely unintelligent, evil soul in the cosmos that can explain disorderly motions; as a result, the soul is not the principle of all motion but only motion in the cosmos after it has been ordered by the Demiurge. (shrink)

I provide a comprehensive metaphysics of causation based on the idea that fundamentally things are governed by the laws of physics, and that derivatively difference-making can be assessed in terms of what fundamental laws of physics imply for hypothesized events. Highlights include a general philosophical methodology, the fundamental/derivative distinction, and my mature account of causal asymmetry.

This paper explains the importance of classifying argumentation schemes, and outlines how schemes are being used in current research in artificial intelligence and computational linguistics on argument mining. It provides a survey of the literature on scheme classification. What are so far generally taken to represent a set of the most widely useful defeasible argumentation schemes are surveyed and explained systematically, including some that are difficult to classify. A new classification system covering these centrally important schemes is built.

In this paper, I take it for granted both that there are two types of blameworthiness—accountability blameworthiness and attributability blameworthiness—and that avoidability is necessary only for the former. My task, then, is to explain why avoidability is necessary for accountability blameworthiness but not for attributability blameworthiness. I argue that what explains this is both the fact that these two types of blameworthiness make different sorts of reactive attitudes fitting and that only one of these two types of attitudes requires having (...) been able to refrain from φ-ing in order for them to be fitting. (shrink)

On what I take to be the standard account of supererogation, an act is supererogatory if and only if it is morally optional and there is more moral reason to perform it than to perform some permissible alternative. And, on this account, an agent has more moral reason to perform one act than to perform another if and only if she morally ought to prefer how things would be if she were to perform the one to how things would be (...) if she were to perform the other. I argue that this account has two serious problems. The first, which I call the latitude problem, is that it has counterintuitive implications in cases where the duty to be exceeded is one that allows for significant latitude in how to comply with it. The second, which I call the transitivity problem, is that it runs afoul of the plausible idea that the one-reason-morally-justifies-acting-against-another relation is transitive. What’s more, I argue that both problems can be overcome by an alternative account, which I call the maximalist account. (shrink)

Andreas Schmidt and Neil Levy have recently defended nudging against the objection that nudges fail to treat nudgees as rational agents. Schmidt rejects two theses that have been taken to support the objection: that nudges harness irrational processes in the nudgee, and that they subvert the nudgee’s rationality. Levy rejects a third thesis that may support the objection: that nudges fail to give reasons. I argue that these defences can be extrapolated from nudges to some nonconsensual neurointerventions; if Schmidt’s and (...) Levy’s defences succeed, then some nonconsensual neurointerventions neither harness irrationality, nor subvert rationality, nor fail to give reasons. This, I claim, poses a challenge both to opponents of nonconsensual neurointerventions, and to defenders of nudging. (shrink)

Soda taxes are controversial. While proponents point to their potential health benefits and the public projects that could be funded with their revenue, critics argue that they are paternalistic and regressive. In this paper, we explore the prospects for designing a just soda tax, one that appropriately balances the often-competing ethical considerations of promoting social welfare, respecting people’s autonomy and ensuring distributive fairness. We argue that policymakers have several paths forward for designing a just soda tax, but that the considerations (...) relevant to ethical policy design are more complicated than is sometimes acknowledged. (shrink)

I argue that, according to Plato, the body is the sole cause of psychic disorders. This view is expressed at Timaeus 86b in an ambiguous sentence that has been widely misunderstood by translators and commentators. The goal of this article is to offer a new understanding of Plato’s text and view. In the first section, I argue that although the body is the result of the gods’ best efforts, their sub-optimal materials meant that the soul is constantly vulnerable to the (...) body’s influences. In the second section, I argue that every psychic disorder is a disruption of the motions of the inner psychic circles by the body; moreover, I defend my translation of 86b. In the final section, I argue that the goal of education is to restore the circles to their original orbits, and I disarm a possible objection that bad education is also a cause of psychic disorder. (shrink)

In this article, I ask whether a principle analogous to the principle of clinical equipoise should govern the design and conduct of RCTs evaluating the effectiveness of policy interventions. I answer this question affirmatively, and introduce and defend the principle of policy equipoise. According to this principle, all arms of a policy RCT must be, at minimum, in a state of equipoise with the best proven policy that is also morally and practically attainable and sustainable. For all arms of a (...) policy RCT, policy experts must either reasonably disagree about whether the trial arms are more effective than this policy, or know that they are. (shrink)

Crime-preventing neurointerventions (CPNs) are increasingly being used or advocated for crime prevention. There is increasing use of testosterone-lowering agents to prevent recidivism in sexual offenders, and strong political and scientific interest in developing pharmaceutical treatments for psychopathy and anti-social behaviour. Recent developments suggest that we may ultimately have at our disposal a range of drugs capable of suppressing violent aggression, and it is not difficult to imagine possible applications of such drugs in crime prevention. But should neurointerventions be used in (...) crime prevention, and may the state ever permissibly impose CPNs as part of the criminal justice process? It is widely thought that preventing recidivism is one of the aims of criminal justice, yet existing means of pursuing this aim are often poorly effective, restrictive of basic freedoms, and harmful. Incarceration, for example, tends to be disruptive of personal relationships and careers, detrimental to physical and mental health, highly restrictive of freedom of movement and association, and rarely more than modestly effective at preventing recidivism. Neurointerventions hold the promise of preventing recidivism in ways that are more effective and more humane, but the use of CPNs in criminal justice raises several ethical concerns. CPNs could be highly intrusive and may threaten fundamental human values, such as bodily integrity and freedom of thought, and humanity has a track record of misguided, harmful, and unwarrantedly coercive use of neurotechnological ‘solutions’ to criminality. This collection brings together original contributions from emerging scholars and internationally renowned moral and political philosophers to address these issues. (shrink)

After raising some minor philosophical points about Kevin Elliott’s A Tapestry of Values (2017), I argue that we should expand on the themes raised in the book and that philosophers of science need to pay as much attention to the loom of science (i.e., the institutional structures which guide the pursuit of science) as the tapestry of science. The loom of science includes such institutional aspects as patents, funding sources, and evaluation regimes that shape how science gets pursued, and that (...) attending to these aspects will enable us to provide more robust guidance on the values that infuse the tapestry of science. (shrink)